Age at Initiation and Frequency of Screening to Prevent Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-risk Regions: an Economic Evaluation

Abstract

The aim of this study was to identify the economic screening strategies for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in high-risk regions. We used a validated ESCC health policy model for comparing different screening strategies for ESCC. Strategies varied in terms of age at initiation and frequency of screening. Model inputs were derived from parameter calibration and published literature. We estimated the effects of each strategy on the incidence of ESCC, costs, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Compared with no screening, all competing screening strategies decreased the incidence of ESCC from 0.35% to 72.8%, and augmented the number of QALYs (0.002-0.086 QAI,Ys per person) over a lifetime horizon. The screening strategies initiating at 40 years of age and repeated every 1-3 years, which gained over 70% of probabilities that was preferred in probabilistic sensitivity analysis at a $1,151/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Results were sensitive to the parameters related to the risks of developing basal cell hyperplasia/mild dysplasia. Endoscopy screening initiating at 40 years of age and repeated every 1-3 years could substantially reduce the disease burden and is cost-effective for the general population in high-risk regions.