COVID-19 pandemic: environmental and social factors influencing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the expanded metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

The new Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than three million people worldwide so far. Brazil is currently the second leading country in number of critical cases and the third in number of new deaths caused by COVID-19, while São Paulo State accounts for more than 33% of total confirmed cases in Brazil. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 spread in São Paulo State is an important task. The aim of this study was to assess environmental and social factors influencing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the expanded metropolitan area of São Paulo, Brazil. Firstly, a spatial analysis was conducted to provide insights into the spread of COVID-19 within the expanded metropolitan area. Moreover, statistical analyses were performed to assess social indicators and environmental conditions which possibly influence the incidence of COVID-19. Our results reveal that the spread of COVID-19 from the capital city São Paulo – its epicenter in Brazil – is directly associated with the availability of highways within the expanded metropolitan area of São Paulo. As for social aspects, cumulative COVID-19 confirmed cases were found to be both positively correlated with population density, and negatively correlated with social isolation rate, hence, indicating that social distancing has been effective in reducing the COVID-19 transmission. Finally, cumulative COVID-19 confirmed cases were found to be inversely correlated with both temperature and UV radiation. Together with recent literature our study suggests that the UV radiation provided by sunlight might reduce the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2.