Theoretical studies of the effects of heterogeneity in the parasite population on the transmission dynamics of malaria
- 22 June 1994
- journal article
- Published by The Royal Society in Proceedings Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences
- Vol. 256 (1347), 231-238
- https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1994.0075
Abstract
Periodicity in malaria transmission has generally been ascribed to seasonal fluctuations in mosquito population density or spatial heterogeneity with periodic migration. In this paper we demonstrate that simple models of strain heterogeneity can generate periodic behaviour as a consequence of the interaction between parasite strains and host immunological defences. As the degree of cross-immunity between strains increases, the system moves from a regime of independent strain transmission and coexistence, through increasingly coupled behaviour, to the displacement of the strain of lower transmissibility by the strain with a higher basic reproductive rate (R$_{0}$). Cross-immunity thus serves both to bring the strains into competition, and also to couple the dynamics. We find analytical and numerical results on strain coexistence to show how the range of possible outcomes may be read as an effect of the tension between these two effects of cross-protection.Keywords
This publication has 17 references indexed in Scilit:
- High Human Malarial Infectivity to Laboratory-Bred Anopheles gambiae in a Village in Burkina FasoThe American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 1993
- Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamicsProceedings Of The Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 1993
- Population genetics and dynamics ofPlasmodium falciparum: an ecological viewParasitology, 1992
- Polymorphic antigens in Plasmodium falciparumBlood, 1989
- Modeling malaria vaccines II: Population effects of stage-specific malaria vaccines dependent on natural boostingMathematical Biosciences, 1989
- Small Area Variation in Prevalence of an S-Antigen Serotype of Plasmodium falciparum in Villages of Madang, Papua New GuineaThe American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 1989
- Epidemiology and genetics in the coevolution of parasites and hostsProceedings of the Royal Society of London. B. Biological Sciences, 1983
- The population dynamics of malariaPublished by Springer Science and Business Media LLC ,1982
- Infectivity to Mosquitoes of Plasmodium Falciparum as Related to Gametocyte Density and Duration of Infection 1The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 1955
- Factors determining the true reservoir of infection of Plasmodium falciparum and Wuchereria bancrofti in a West African villageTransactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 1954