Low-Molecular-Weight Proteins as Prognostic Markers in Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy

Abstract

Background Accurate prediction of prognosis in idiopathic membranous nephropathy (iMN) allows restriction of immunosuppressive therapy to patients at high risk for ESRD. Here we re-evaluate urinary low-molecular-weight proteins as prognostic markers and explore causes of misclassification. Design, setting, participants, & measurements In a cohort of 129 patients with serum creatinine concentration Results Median survival time was 25 months, and 47% of patients showed progression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for uβ2m was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.89). Using a threshold value of 1.0 μg/min, sensitivity and specificity were 73% and 75%, respectively. Similar accuracy was observed for the uβ2m-creatinine ratio with sensitivity and specificity of 75% and 73%, respectively, at a threshold of 1.0 μg/10 mmol creatinine. Similar accuracy was found for uα1m and uα1m-creatinine ratio. Blood Pressure and cholesterol contributed to misclassification. Repeated measurements improved accuracy in patients with persistent proteinuria: the positive predictive value of uβ2m increased from 72% to 89% and the negative predictive value from 76% to 100%. Conclusions Urinary excretion of uα2m and uβ2m predict prognosis in iMN. A spot urine sample can be used instead of a timed sample. A repeated measurement after 6 to 12 months increases prognostic accuracy.