Factors Associated with Dengue Mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1995–2009: An Ecological Study

Abstract

In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect that environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic factors have on dengue mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean. To that end, we conducted an observational ecological study, analyzing data collected between 1995 and 2009. Dengue mortality rates were highest in the Caribbean (Spanish-speaking and non-Spanish-speaking). Multivariate analysis through Poisson regression revealed that the following factors were independently associated with dengue mortality: time since identification of endemicity (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 3.2 [for each 10 years]); annual rainfall (aRR = 1.5 [for each 10(3) L/m(2)]); population density (aRR = 2.1 and 3.2 for 20-120 inhabitants/km(2) and > 120 inhabitants/km(2), respectively); Human Development Index > 0.83 (aRR = 0.4); and circulation of the dengue 2 serotype (aRR = 1.7). These results highlight the important role that environmental, demographic, socioeconomic, and biological factors have played in increasing the severity of dengue in recent decades.Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development) [312131/2006-2]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES, Office for the Advancement of Higher Education)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (CAPES, Office for the Advancement of Higher Education