Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative statics and the environmental Kuznets curve

Abstract

The paper presents a dynamic simulation model for the quantitative analysis of environmental policy, incorporating key features of technical progress in abatement and an explicit role for policy in determining costs and pollution over time. The model is used to develop scenarios for PM, SO₂, and CO₂ abatement in developing countries, and the results are compared with those that emerge from studies of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) of economic growth and pollution. The latter, by neglecting the roles of policy and technical progress in pollution abatement, underestimate dramatically the possibilities for countries to reduce pollution while raising incomes.