Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard
- 1 January 2001
- journal article
- Published by International Glaciological Society in Annals of Glaciology
- Vol. 32, 163-167
- https://doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819292
Abstract
The SAFRAN/Crocus/MÉPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MEPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.Keywords
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