Quasispecies dynamics and the emergence of drug resistance during zidovudine therapy of HIV infection

Abstract

To investigate the roles of mutation, competition and population dynamics in the emergence of drug resistant mutants during zidovudine therapy. A mathematical model of the population dynamics of the viral quasispecies during zidovudine therapy was investigated. The model was used to simulate changes in the numbers of uninfected and infected cells and the composition of the viral quasispecies in the years following initiation of therapy. Resulting scenarios in asymptomatic and AIDS patients were compared. The model was also used to investigate the efficacy of a treatment regimen involving alternating zidovudine and dideoxyinosine therapy. The behaviour of the model can be divided into three stages. Before therapy, mutation maintains a small pool of resistant mutants, outcompeted to very low levels by sensitive strains. When therapy begins there is a dramatic fall in the total viral load and resistant strains suddenly have the competitive advantage. Thus, it is resistant strains that infect the rising number of uninfected CD4+ cells. During this second stage the rapid effects of population dynamics swamp any effects of mutation between strains. When the populations of infected and uninfected cells approach their treatment equilibrium levels, mutation again becomes important in the slow generation of highly resistant strains. The short-term reduction in viral replication at the initiation of therapy generates a pool of uninfected cells which cause the eventual increase in viral burden. This increase is associated with (but not caused by) a rise in frequency of resistant strains which are at a competitive advantage in the presence of the drug. When therapy is ceased, reversion of resistance is slow as resistant strains are nearly as fit as sensitive strains in the absence of drug.