Decision Analysis: A Method for Taking Uncertainties into Account in Risk-Based Decision Making

Abstract

The assessment of human and ecological risks and associated risk-management decisions are characterized by only partial knowledge of the relevant systems. Typically, large variability and measurement errors in data create challenges for estimating risks and identifying appropriate management strategies. The formal quantitative method of decision analysis can help deal with these challenges because it takes uncertainties into account explicitly and quantitatively. In recent years, research in several areas of natural resource management has demonstrated that decision analysis can identify policies that are appropriate in the presence of uncertainties. More importantly, the resulting optimal decision is often different from the one that would have been chosen had the uncertainties not been taken into account quantitatively. However, challenges still exist to effective implementation of decision analysis.