Development and validation of numerical habitat models for juveniles of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar )

Abstract

We evaluated the ability of numerical habitat models (NHM) to predict the distribution of juveniles of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in a river. NHMs comprise a hydrodynamic model (to predict water depth and current speed for any given flow) and a biological model (to predict habitat quality for fish using water depth, current speed, and substrate composition). We implemented NHMs with a biological model based on (i) preference curves defined by the ratio of the use to the availability of physical conditions and (ii) a multivariate logistic regression that distinguished between the physical conditions used and avoided by fish. Preference curves provided a habitat suitability index (HSI) ranging from 0 to 1, and the logistic regression produced a habitat probabilistic index (HPI) representing the probability of observing a parr under given physical conditions. Pearson's correlation coefficients between HSI and local densities of parr ranged from 0.39 to 0.63 depending on flow. Corresponding values for HPI ranged from 0.81 to 0.98. We concluded that HPI may be a more powerful biological model than HSI for predicting local variations in fish density, forecasting fish distribution patterns, and performing summer habitat modelling for Atlantic salmon juveniles.