Trends and forecasts of hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis in the Netherlands

Abstract

The incidence and prevalence of acute and chronic pancreatitis have increased in Western countries. It is likely, the number of hospital admissions has increased correspondingly. To analyze the trends in hospital admissions in the Netherlands for acute and chronic pancreatitis from 1992 to 2004 and to forecast the number of admissions up to 2010. Analysis of hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis accumulated in a nationwide database. Curve fitting regression models were used to explore future trends. The number of acute pancreatitis admissions rose in 1992-2004 from 1,785 to 3,120 (74.8% increase). The overall 'annual number' of acute pancreatitis admissions increased from 11.8 to 19.2 per 100,000 person-years. The linear regression model predicted 3,205 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 3,111-3,299] and 3,537 (95% CI, 3,429-3,645) admissions for 2007 and 2010, respectively, a further increase of at least 9.9% in 2010 compared with 2004. In the 12-year time period, chronic pancreatitis admissions showed an increase of 75.4% (from 790 to 1,386). The overall 'annual number' of chronic pancreatitis admissions increased from 5.2 to 8.5 per 100,000 person-years. The cubic regression model predicted 1868 (95% CI, 1,619-2,117) and 3,173 (95% CI, 2,456-3,890) admissions for 2007 and 2010, respectively, an additional increase of 77.2% in 2010 compared with 2004. Hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis have increased substantially from 1992-2004. This trend will most likely continue for the near future and the burden and costs to the Dutch health care system will increase accordingly.