Scenario analysis of the future of medicines

Abstract

Public policy decisions about health care can have repercussions on society that extend for into the future; if they are to be sound they should be based on a solid understanding of the processes that have led to the current situation and some reasoned analysis of the role that these and other factors are likely to play in the foreseeable future. With medicines, this type of policy planning poses peculiarly difficult problems. The existing situation of drug development and treatment is not stable and is not free of conflict and controversy. New discoveries constantly advance the possibilities of drug treatment, but at the same time society is increasingly concerned about rising drug costs, safety issues, and the sometimes irrational use of existing medicines.*RF 1- 3* Research on medical outcomes clearly shows the need for a quantified insight into how drug treatment is actually conducted and what its positive and negative consequences are in terms of health, cost, and value for society as …