Spread Times of Hepatitis C Virus Estimated by the Molecular Clock Differ among Japan, the United States and Egypt in Reflection of Their Distinct Socioeconomic Backgrounds

Abstract

Infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is taking an ever increasing role in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over the world. Dynamics of HCV infection were determined by the molecular clock, estimating the dissemination time when HCV entered the country and the ‘spread time’ when it started to grow exponentially on a national scale. A comparison of HCV dynamics in Japan, the United States and Egypt has disclosed different dissemination and spread times among the three countries. Furthermore, they faithfully mirror socioeconomic as well as medical and paramedical events inherent to each country responsible for the wide spread of HCV infection during the past. Epidemic histories of HCV would enable us to predict what is going to happen in the future for HCV infection, in special reference to HCC associated with it. Population dynamics of HCV need to be determined in other countries where HCV prevails and compared with those in the three countries described. These studies should help foresee what will happen in the near future for HCV infection in a given country, time the future development of HCC and take measures for preventing it.