Syndromic surveillance: sensitivity and positive predictive value of the case definitions

Abstract

SUMMARY: The aim of the study was to measure the positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity of operational case definitions of 13 syndromes in a surveillance system based on the Emergency online database of the Lazio region. The PPVs were calculated using electronic emergency department (ED) medical records and subsequent hospitalizations to ascertain the cases. Sensitivity was calculated using a modified capture–recapture method. The number of cases that fulfilled the case definition criteria in the 2004 database ranged from 27 320 for gastroenteritis to three for haemorrhagic diarrhoea. The PPVs ranged from 99·3 to 20; sepsis, meningitis-like and coma were below 50%. The estimated sensitivity ranged from 90% for coma to 22% for haemorrhagic diarrhoea. Syndromes such as gastroenteritis, where the signs, symptoms, and exposure history provide immediate diagnostic implications fit this surveillance system better than others such as haemorrhagic diarrhoea, where symptoms are not evident and a more precise diagnosis is needed.