Abstract
A technique is presented for estimating the average power output of a wind turbine using, as the wind characteristic input, only the mean annual wind magnitude. Hourly wind speeds are assumed to have a Rayleigh frequency distribution which requires a single parameter input (e.g., the mean value, variance or higher moment values). Based upon a general shape, for the wind speed versus machine output, a generic set of curves is developed to estimate the average power output of wind turbines. Also, estimates of the percent of time the wind turbine would not produce power (percent down time) and the percent of time the wind turbine would be operating at its rated power are presented.