Historical Epidemiology and Grid Analysis of Epidemiologic Data

Abstract

Each major community should construct a thorough record of its mortality experience during the 20th century, and thereby produce the "long rifle" needed for effective aim of public health resources at the most important and emerging health problems. Problems encountered and methods developed while constructing such a mortality record for the Seattle community are presented. A "Mortalogram" was devised which presents the deaths by age, sex, and time; the total deaths by sex and for sexes combined; the crude and age-standardized mortality rates by sex and for sexes combined; and the median age of the deaths, for up to 20 time periods upon an 81/2 x 11 inch form. Presentation of the numerical data by time, age, and sex for a given cause permits one to discern major trends at a glance; and the use of the form facilitates recording, storage, transfer, presentation and publication of the data. Tables and charts are presented which show the great decrease in major communicable diseases during the 20th century, and the rapid increase in coronary disease and lung cancer mortality during the last several decades. Analysis of coronary disease and lung cancer mortality by age, sex, and time shows that both these 20th century epidemics are now leveling off, because mortality rates for both these diseases are no longer increasing for males less than 50 years of age.