A smoothness priors time-varying AR coefficient modeling of nonstationary covariance time series

Abstract

A smoothness priors time varying AR coefficient model approach for the modeling of nonstationary in the covariance time series is shown. Smoothness priors in the form of a difference equation constraint excited by an independent white noise are imposed on each AR coefficient. The unknown white noise variances are hyperparameters of the AR coefficient distribution. The critical computation is of the likelihood of the hyperparameters of the Bayesian model. This computation is facilitated by a state-space representation Kalman filter implementation. The best difference equation order-best AR model order-best hyperparameter model locally in time is selected using the minimum AIC method. Also, an instantaneous spectral density is defined in terms of the instantaneous AR model coefficients and a smoothed estimate of the instantaneous time series variance. An earthquake record is analyzed. The changing spectral analysis of the original data and of simulations from a time varying AR coefficient model of that data are shown.