An analytic simulation model of human reproduction with demographic and biological components

Abstract

This Monte Carlo model for simulating the reproductive history of a cohort of women is described in detail. The model provides for patterns of survival, sterility, formation and dissolution of sexual unions, fecundability, lactation, foetal wastage, family planning practices etc. Natality indices specific for marital status, for duration of marriage and for age, as well as analyses of birth spacing patterns are among the results that may be obtained. In the model, the experimental unit is an individual woman. The complete life history of a woman is generated and recorded before the history of the next woman is generated. The data for the whole cohort are analyzed at the end of the programme. The model includes two kinds of states into which a woman may pass, namely: (1) permanent changes of status such as death, sterility, or becoming a family planner, and (2) temporary states, each with a probability distribution of length of stay. The probabilities of the various events or changes of state may vary from age, parity, and other features of a woman's status or history. Natural fecundability at any age may also vary from woman to woman. In this programme natality patterns and specific indices such as age-specific fertility rates are produced, in a quasi-realistic fashion, by the interplay of the demographic and biological parameters postulated for any cohort. Consequently, the effect of changes in anyone factor can be studied, as well as the interaction resulting from changes in several factors. The purposes and potentials of the model are both substantive and methodological. As an illustration, a series of computer runs attempting to simulate the reproductive patterns of Indian women is presented. These results, as well as some additional ones, indicate some effects of changes in marital patterns, levels of fecundability, duration of post-partum non-susceptibility, age incidence of sterility and foetal wastage. In the final section of the paper, the advantages and possible applications of the model are discussed together with the limitations encountered to date in the efforts to apply the model.