Estimating rheumatic fever incidence in New Zealand using multiple data sources
- 6 March 2014
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Epidemiology and Infection
- Vol. 143 (1), 167-177
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0950268814000296
Abstract
SUMMARY: Rheumatic fever (RF) is an important public health problem in New Zealand (NZ). There are three sources of RF surveillance data, all with major limitations that prevent NZ generating accurate epidemiological information. We aimed to estimate the likely RF incidence using multiple surveillance data sources. National RF hospitalization and notification data were obtained, covering the periods 1988–2011 and 1997–2011, respectively. Data were also obtained from four regional registers: Wellington, Waikato, Hawke's Bay and Rotorua. Coded patient identifiers were used to calculate the proportion of individuals who could be matched between datasets. Capture–recapture analyses were used to calculate the likely number of true RF cases for the period 1997–2011. A range of scenarios were used to correct for likely dataset incompleteness. The estimated sensitivity of each data source was calculated. Patients who were male, Māori or Pacific, aged 5–15 years and met the Jones criteria, were most likely to be matched between national datasets. All registers appeared incomplete. An average of 113 new initial cases occurred annually. Sensitivity was estimated at 80% for the hospitalization dataset and 60% for the notification dataset. There is a clear need to develop a high-quality RF surveillance system, such as a national register. Such a system could link important data sources to provide effective, comprehensive national surveillance to support both strategy-focused and control-focused activities, helping reduce the incidence and impact of this disease. It is important to remind clinicians that RF cases do occur outside the well-characterized high-risk group.Keywords
This publication has 27 references indexed in Scilit:
- Rheumatic fever in Indigenous Australian childrenJournal of Paediatrics and Child Health, 2010
- A surveillance sector review applied to infectious diseases at a country levelBMC Public Health, 2010
- Incidence of bacterial meningitis (2001–2005) in Lazio, Italy: the results of a integrated surveillance systemBMC Infectious Diseases, 2009
- Incidence and completeness of notification of Legionnaires' disease in The Netherlands: covariate capture–recapture analysis acknowledging regional differencesEpidemiology and Infection, 2007
- Estimating infectious diseases incidence: validity of capture–recapture analysis and truncated models for incomplete count dataEpidemiology and Infection, 2007
- Gender Differences in the Treatment for Acute Myocardial InfarctionCirculation, 2007
- Epidemiology of neonatal group B streptococcal disease in the Netherlands before and after introduction of guidelines for preventionArchives of Disease in Childhood: Fetal & Neonatal, 2007
- Estimating the lesbian population: a capture-recapture approachJournal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2003
- Epidemiology of neonatal group B streptococcal disease in The Netherlands 1997–98Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 2002
- Capture-recapture methods to size alcohol related problems in a populationJournal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2000