A simulation of the shortgrass prairie ecosystem

Abstract

Ecosystem modeling for simulation and systems analy sis is complicated by (i) size and complexity of ecosystems, (ii) lack of data and methods for obtain ing needed measurements, and (iii) inadequacies of modeling theory for macrosystem applications. This paper presents an S/360 CSMP simulation of a gener alized shortgrass prairie scaled large enough to preserve meaningful biological detail, but still small enough for computer implementation. Both nomi nal and small perturbation behaviors are described, together with a modeling rationale tied to the closed-loop recycling structure of ecosystems. The model, which is piecewise linear and piecewise stationary, demonstrates in the context of system complexity and insufficient data the potential of linear methods for successfully characterizing ecosystem dynamics.