A Simplified Logic of Causal Inference

Abstract

This paper provides a simplified method for evaluating the evidence in favour of a causal claim. It analyses the evidence bearing upon such a claim in terms of two questions: Do the putative cause and effect covary, and can alternative non-causal explanations of the relationship be ruled out? The different research designs for assessing covariation are outlined, as are the ways in which these designs permit a researcher to decide between alternative explanations of the relationship.