Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in 335 Years of Central England Temperatures
- 5 May 1995
- journal article
- other
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 268 (5211), 710-713
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.268.5211.710
Abstract
Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.Keywords
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