Power Parity and Lethal International Violence, 1969–1973

Abstract

Among students of international politics, there is little consensus concerning the nature of the relationship between dyadic power distributions and the likelihood of interstate violence: there may be no relationship, a positive relationship, or a negative relationship. This study hypothesized that lethal international violence between pairs of contiguous nation-states was more probable if the two states were equally powerful. Using the technique of pattern recognition, the hypothesis was tested—and substantiated—for the period 1969–1973. Furthermore, a discriminant function based on four indicators of national power (area, GNP, military manpower, and defense expenditures) appears to be a potentially useful predictor of lethal interstate violence.