Predicting the distribution of plant communities using annual rainfall and elevation: an example from southern Africa

Abstract

Using the results of a total floristic survey of two veld types (Arid Sweet Bushveld and Mixed Bushveld) in the northeastern Transvaal, South Africa, we linked median annual rainfall from a surface response model to each of 139 samples. The samples had been classified floristically into 15 plant communities. These communities represent two broad divisions, corresponding with the concepts embodied in the two veld types. Using contingency tables, we defined the conditions of median annual rainfall and elevation for each of the veld types. Using a geographic analysis system we predicted the distribution of the veld types in an area of 120 000 km² outside the study area. The predicted distribution was validated by comparison with a digitized version of the Acocks map. We conclude that the defined conditions of median annual rainfall and elevation provide confident criteria for the definition of these veld types.