Roadmap for Modeling Risks of Terrorism to the Homeland

Abstract

The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001, were a wake-up call for changing our past practices in ensuring homeland security. The positive results of these changes, however, are accompanied by myriad visible and invisible risks. Accepting change implies assessing and managing these risks in a comprehensive and systemic fashion, avoiding an ad hoc approach. This paper offers a holistic risk assessment and management framework for modeling the risks of terrorism to the homeland. Two major interconnected systems are addressed: the homeland system and the terrorist networks system. In modeling the two systems, the centrality of state variables is highlighted. It is worth noting that the community of risk analysts has been developing and applying systems-based methodologies and tools for many years. The roadmap presented in this paper builds on the findings of many prior analyses.