Ethnic Distribution of ECG Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation and Its Impact on Understanding the Ethnic Distribution of Ischemic Stroke in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Abstract

Background and Purpose— The paradox of the reported low prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in blacks compared with whites despite higher stroke rates in the former could be related to limitations in the current methods used to diagnose AF in population-based studies. Hence, this study aimed to use the ethnic distribution of ECG predictors of AF as measures of AF propensity in different ethnic groups. Methods— The distribution of baseline measures of P-wave terminal force, P-wave duration, P-wave area, and PR duration (referred to as AF predictors) were compared by ethnicity in 15 429 participants (27% black) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study by unpaired t test, χ2, and logistic-regression analysis, as appropriate. Cox proportional-hazards analysis was used to separately examine the association of AF predictors with incident AF and ischemic stroke. Results— Whereas AF was significantly less common in blacks compared with whites (0.24% vs 0.95%, P<0.0001), similar to what has bee...