The Estimation of Age-Specific Breeding Probabilities from Recaptures or Resightings in Vertebrate Populations. I. Transversal Models

Abstract

We provide a statistical framework to estimate age-specific breeding probabilities in vertebrate populations, from recaptures or resightings of individuals marked as young. We consider here data collected at one or possibly several points over time, but without information on individual fate over time, leading to models which we can call transversal models. When the adult survival rate is known, explicit estimates are obtained. When data on individuals marked as adults are also available, the adult survival rate and the age-specific breeding probabilities can be approximately estimated using log-linear models, with greater flexibility. An example of resightings of black-headed gulls Larus ridibundus is treated.