The Markov Process in Medical Prognosis
- 1 December 1983
- journal article
- case report
- Published by SAGE Publications in Medical Decision Making
- Vol. 3 (4), 419-458
- https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989x8300300403
Abstract
The physician's estimate of prognosis under alternative treatment plans is a principal factor in therapeutic decision making. Current methods of reporting prognosis, which include five-year survivals, survival curves, and quality-adjusted life expec tancy, are crude estimates of natural history. In this paper we describe a general- purpose model of medical prognosis based on the Markov process and show how this simple mathematical tool may be used to generate detailed and accurate assessments of life expectancy and health status. (Med Decis Making 3:419-458, 1983)Keywords
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