Inferring Hunting Patterns on African Elephants from Tusks in the International Ivory Trade

Abstract

(1) Simulation modelling was used to explore the processes responsible for recent international ivory trade patterns, and their implications. (2) The results suggest tha the primary motive for killing African elephants is economic, and that the majority of populations currently supplying the ivory trade are seriously over-hunted. (3) Recently there has been a sharp increase in the number of elephants killed, probably due to a steep rise in the price of ivory, deteriorating economic conditions in Africa and greater availability of automatic weapons. (4) Recent patterns of ivory exploitation are similar to models which lead to rapid population collapse. Simulation results suggest that, if present exploitation patterns continue, the majority of elephant populations currently supplying the ivory trade will be greatly reduced within 10 years, possibly halving the total African elephant population.