Long-term Outdoor Recreation Participation Projections for Public Land Management Agencies

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical structure for developing long-term outdoor recreation projections for public agencies. The suggested approach is demonstrated using data from the 1977 National Outdoor Recreation Survey of the Department of Interior. On the basis of this data, substantial increases in outdoor recreation participation are anticipated in the future. The availability of recreation opportunities appears to be very important in determining participation in recreation activities. This implies that recreation planning cannot simply aim at a “target level” of participation without considering future supply-demand interactions.