Specification and Prediction of Global Surface Temperature and Precipitation from Global SST Using CCA

Abstract

A reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) dataset is used to examine relationships between SST and seasonal mean surface temperature (T) and total precipitation (P) over most of the global continents for the 1950–92 period. Both specification (i.e., simultaneous) and predictive relations are studied. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to describe the relationships and to provide information aiding in physical interpretation. A sequence of four consecutive 3-month periods of global SST anomalies is related to T and P anomalies during the fourth period for the specification analyses, and to 3-month periods ranging from one to four seasons later for the predictive analyses. Dynamical specifications of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) atmospheric model, using observed SST anomalies as boundary conditions, are also examined for confirmation of and comparison with the statistical specification relationships suggested by the CCA. Specification and predictive cross-v... Abstract A reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) dataset is used to examine relationships between SST and seasonal mean surface temperature (T) and total precipitation (P) over most of the global continents for the 1950–92 period. Both specification (i.e., simultaneous) and predictive relations are studied. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is used to describe the relationships and to provide information aiding in physical interpretation. A sequence of four consecutive 3-month periods of global SST anomalies is related to T and P anomalies during the fourth period for the specification analyses, and to 3-month periods ranging from one to four seasons later for the predictive analyses. Dynamical specifications of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) atmospheric model, using observed SST anomalies as boundary conditions, are also examined for confirmation of and comparison with the statistical specification relationships suggested by the CCA. Specification and predictive cross-v...