Hindsight Distortion and the 1980 Presidential Election

Abstract

The tendency for people retrospectively to overestimate the degree to which they expected certain events to occur was examined within the context of the 1980 presidential election. Previous research has concluded that distorted hindsight occurs due to people's inability to reconstruct prior probabilities for an event after it has occurred, but the possible mediation of motivational factors, specifically self-esteem and self-presentation, has not been adequately examined. Subjects were asked either before or after the 1980 presidential election, and under public or private response conditions, to predict the outcome of the election (preelection) or to indicate what they would have predicted the outcome to be had they been asked before the election (postelection). In addition, subjects were classified as being either high or low in ego involvement regarding knowledge of politics. Results showed clear evidence of hindsight distortion: Subjects asked after the election said they woud have predicted an outcome closer to the results of the election than those asked before, but there was no evidence of mediation by self-esteem or self presentation concerns.