A Bayesian Approach to Decision Making in Applied Meteorology

Abstract

The problem of decision making in applied meteorology is approached from the point of view of decision theory and subjectivist statistics. The modern concept of “utility” is discussed, and optional rules for decision making based on the availability of a limited amount of meteorological data are presented and discussed. Bayes' theorem forms the basis for the statistical estimation of the frequencies of various alternative weather events. The method is applied to a single example for the purpose of illustration, but it is emphasized that the generality of these techniques is great and that they warrant further study.