The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes in the 21st century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model

Abstract

We present results from a greenhouse warming experiment obtained from an atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice general circulation model that is interactively coupled with a three-dimensional model of the Greenland ice sheet. the experiment covers the period 1970–2099 and is driven by the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESB2 scenario. the Greenland model is a thermomechanical high-resolution (20 km) model coupled with a viscoelastic bedrock model. the melt-and-runoff model is based on the positive degree-day method and includes meltwater retention in the snowpack and the formation of superimposed ice. the atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM) is a coarse-resolution model without flux correction based on the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Paris) LMD 5.3 atmospheric model coupled with a primitive-equation, free-surface oceanic component incorporating sea ice (coupled large-scale ice–ocean (CLIO)). By 2100, average Greenland annual temperature is found to rise by about 4.5˚C and mean precipitation by about 35%. the total fresh-water flux approximately doubles over this period due to increased runoff from the ice sheet and the ice-free land, but the calving rate is found to decrease by 25%. the ice sheet shrinks equivalent to 4 cm of sea-level rise. the contribution from the background evolution is not more than 5% of the total predicted sea-level rise. We did not find significant changes in the patterns of climate change over the North Atlantic region compared with a climate-change run without Greenland fresh-water feedback.