Uncertainties in Projections of Human-Caused Climate Warming

Abstract

Increased atmospheric greenhouse gases resulting from human activities have produced a sharp increase in the potential to warm the climate to levels that may have serious implications. Predictions of future climate changes in response to these greenhouse gas increases depend almost completely upon physically based mathematical models of the climate system. The strengths and weaknesses of these models to project various aspects of climate change are evaluated in terms of a "betting odds" approach to provide guidance to the policy deliberation process.