Reconstruction of Precipitation in Morocco Since 1100 A.D. Based onCedrus AtlanticaTree-Ring Widths

Abstract

Annual (October through September) precipitation from 1100 A.D. to modern times is reconstructed for Morocco, using Cedrus atlantica (Endl.) Carrière tree-ring chronologies. Both multiple regression on principal components and the bootstrap method are use to calibrate tree-ring width with precipitation; precipitation variation is reconstructed for three climatically distinct areas: the humid, subhumid, and arid regions of Morocco. A series of successive wet and dry periods is identified for the past 1000 years; the maximum length of the 13 dry periods (during which precipitation was at least 1σ below normal) is 6 years. Twenty-one years are identified during which precipitation fell more than 2σ below normal. We are unable to identify significant correspondence in climatic variation in Morocco, Europe, and the Sahel during this time period.