A Statistical Model of the Dynamics of a Mosquito Vector ( Culex Tarsalis ) Population

Abstract

A model of the dynamics of a mosquito Culex tarsalis [Western equine encephalitis vector in California, USA] is derived that included the life states through which the mosquito proceeds. Transition probabilities from one state (egg, larva, pupa and adult) to another are derived, and they depend on the duration of stay and mortality in each state. A formula is derived for the expected number of mosquitoes alive at any time during the spring or summer. This formula depends on the number of eggs oviposited and the transition probabilities. Data are used to estimate the parameters and to illustrate the usefulness of this model in examining the effect of changes in mosquito survival on the dynamics of the population.