Short‐Term Clinical Disease Progression in HIV‐Infected Patients Receiving Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: Results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database

Abstract

Objective. The aim of our study was to develop, on the basis of simple clinical data, predictive short-term risk equations for AIDS or death in Asian patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who were included in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database. Methods. Inclusion criteria were highly active antiretroviral therapy initiation and completion of required laboratory tests. Predictors of short-term AIDS or death were assessed using Poisson regression. Three different models were developed: a clinical model, a CD4 cell count model, and a CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level model. We separated patients into low-risk, high-risk, and very high-risk groups according to the key risk factors identified. Results. In the clinical model, patients with severe anemia or a body mass index (BMI; calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) ⩽18 were at very high risk, and patients who were aged Conclusions. These models are simple enough for widespread use in busy clinics and should allow clinicians to identify patients who are at high risk of AIDS or death in Asia and the Pacific region and in resource-poor settings.