CONFIDENCE LIMITS ON PHYLOGENIES: THE BOOTSTRAP REVISITED

Abstract

— The bootstrap, a non-parametric statistical analysis, can be used to assess confidence limits on phylogcnics. The method most widely used tests the monophyly of individual clades. This paper proposes additional applications of the bootstrap which provide useful information about phylogeny even when many clades are found not to be supported with confidence (as often occurs in practice). In such cases it is still possible to place a constraint on the phylogenetic position of taxa by examining the relative size of the smallest monophyletic groups that contain them. In addition, the taxonomic composition of these larger clades can be determined, as well as the relative likelihood of their occurrence. The distinction between hypotheses about membership in particular clades and hypotheses about entire topologies is also discussed. To investigate the latter, the bootstrap is used to estimate the sampling distribution of tree similarity indices. All methods are illustrated by reference to a large data set on the angiosperm family Asteraccae, selected from the literature.