The Statistical Analsis of the Canadian Lynx cycle. 1. Structure and Prediction.

Abstract

Trapping records of the Canadian lynx show a strongly marked 10-year cycle. The logarithms of the numbers trapped are analysed as if they were a random process of autoregressive type. Such a process appears to fit the data reasonably well. The significance of this for the explanation and prediction of the cycle is discussed. The results will be used in a later paper to consider how far meteorological phenomena influence the lynx population and may be responsible for the observed synchronization of the cycle over the whole of Canada.