Mathematical Models for Use in the Simulation of Power Generation Outages II-Power System Forced-Outage Distributions

Abstract

The numerical results presented in this paper, in Tables I through VI, apply only to the PSEG system. First presented is a summary of the forced-outage data collected; see Table I. Table II compares the actual distribution of up-period duration with an exponential distribution. Then, Tables III and IV give estimates of average up-period duration and the probabilities of an outage being a halfoutage for the four classes of units. Table V shows the component failure rates for mature units. Table VI gives the details of the durations and postponements of down periods. Comments on the numerical results are given in the section "Results" at the beginning of the paper.