Accidents, Risks, and Models of Explanation

Abstract

Two models of explanation are outlined: the causal model, used in the physical sciences and in traditional behavioristic psychology, and the purposive model, which although not strictly “scientific,” is making a useful comeback in modem cognitive psychology. It is shown that both models are required to produce a satisfactory definition of the concept of accident, four aspects of which are considered. The discussion is extended to the concept of risk, where it is shown that the two models used together illuminate the notions of objective and subjective risk. It is suggested that the latter is closely associated with loss of intentional control. A rule-following model of driving is proposed, initially based on an outdated hedonic theory, but which is shown to have close links with current psychological concepts of attentionand arousal. Finally, it is argued that both models of explanation must be acknowledgedif progress is to be made in understanding accidents and risk.