Dynamic Properties of the 1966–1971 Canadian Spatial Population System

Abstract

This paper uses an extended Rogers model of multiregional demographic growth to characterize the 1966–1971 Canadian spatial population system, which is disaggregated simultaneously into two sexes, fourteen age groups, and eight regions. It is assumed that much foresight about the future of a spatial population system can be gained by studying the dynamic implications of a fixed matrix of empirically estimated demographic rates. The analysis reveals that during the period 1966–1971 the Canadian spatial population system had very strong growth potential, over 40% of which was due to foreign net immigration, and that the system's long-run redistributional trend is: (1) a continued dominance by Ontario; (2) a strong westward-shifting potential; (3) a drastic reduction in Quebec's competitiveness; (4) a substantial increase in the mean age of every regional subpopulation, except in the North; and (5) a switch from male to female dominance. It is also shown that the convergence toward the long-run distribution can be divided into two stages: First a quick convergence toward relatively smooth regional age profiles, and then a slow but persistent spatial convergence.