PROBABILITY OF INTRODUCING DISEASES BECAUSE OF FALSE NEGATIVE TEST RESULTS

Abstract

The use of diagnostic tests for the selection of healthy individual persons or animals for inclusion in certain groups carries with it an inherent risk of including those with infections because they falsely reacted negatively. The factors of sensitivity of the test, prevalence of the disease, and the size of the group all influence the degree of such risk. The probability of including an infected individual person or animal can be calculated combining conditional probabiltty and the binomial distribution.