The Effect of Climate and Weather on the Numbers of the Red Locust, Nomadacris septemfasciata (Serv.), in the Rukwa Valley Outbreak Area

Abstract

An examination of the records from 1930 onwards shows that a very high level of Lake Rukwa is correlated with small numbers of the red locust, Nomadacris septemfasciata (Serv.), in the Rukwa Valley outbreak area in Tanganyika. When the lake level is not very high, the size of the adult locust population (taken as that present in the middle of the dry season) is correlated negatively with the total rainfall of the last but one wet season (broadly, November–May), positively with the size of the preceding parental population (taken as that present at the time of oviposition) and possibly also with the rainfall of the preceding October–December, but not significantly with the date of the drop in temperature that is thought to be associated with the start of ovarian development.Three tentative explanations of the correlation between adult population and rainfall are offered. First, if the water-table is high because of heavy rain in the previous season, the early rains may make the soil unsuitable for successful egg-laying and incubation; second, after a season of heavy rainfall the grass cover may be particularly dense at the end of the following dry season and the consequent reduction of the oviposition sites may make breeding unsuccessful; third, parental mortality may be high during a dry season following heavy rains. These possibilities are being further investigated.It is suggested that by using a multiple regression equation incorporating the correlations that have been established, the size of the adult locust population can be forecast in time for the scale of hopper control measures to be appropriately modified and economies thereby achieved.