Simulations of Processes Associated with the Fast Warming Rate of the Southern Midlatitude Ocean

Abstract

Significant warming has occurred across many of the world’s oceans throughout the latter part of the twentieth-century. The increase in the oceanic heat content displays a considerable spatial difference, with a maximum in the 35°–50°S midlatitude band. The relative importance of wind and surface heat flux changes in driving the warming pattern is the subject of much debate. Using wind, oceanic temperature, and heat flux outputs from twentieth-century multimodel experiments, conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authors were able to reproduce the fast, deep warming in the midlatitude band; however, this warming is unable to be accounted for by local heat flux changes. The associated vertical structure and zonal distribution are consistent with a Sverdrup-type response to poleward-strengthening winds, with a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) supergyre and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. However, the shift is no... Abstract Significant warming has occurred across many of the world’s oceans throughout the latter part of the twentieth-century. The increase in the oceanic heat content displays a considerable spatial difference, with a maximum in the 35°–50°S midlatitude band. The relative importance of wind and surface heat flux changes in driving the warming pattern is the subject of much debate. Using wind, oceanic temperature, and heat flux outputs from twentieth-century multimodel experiments, conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authors were able to reproduce the fast, deep warming in the midlatitude band; however, this warming is unable to be accounted for by local heat flux changes. The associated vertical structure and zonal distribution are consistent with a Sverdrup-type response to poleward-strengthening winds, with a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) supergyre and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. However, the shift is no...