Interannual variability of annual streamflow and the Southern Oscillation in Costa Rica

Abstract

This study illustrates the association between annual and seasonal streamflow characteristics on six Costa Rican rivers and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Annual discharge from rivers within the Pacific watershed are clearly positively associated with contemporary values of the SOI and experience significant reductions in both mean and variance in El Ninõ years. The considerable practical implications of this finding to a country in which over 60% of national electrical power comes from hydroelectric schemes is illustrated using quantile estimates from various models. Rivers draining towards the Caribbean show less clear and coherent patterns of associations. The observed associations with seasonal flows on some rivers appear to be the opposite of those on the Pacific, and may even vary during the course of a year at a site. The exact nature of the response seems to be closely related to the elevation of the gauge site. The larger the proportion of the basin at elevations above about 500–1000 m the greater the similarity to the Pacific pattern, suggesting that the marked topographic divide between the two coastal watersheds does not correspond to the divide in associations between streamflow and the SOI.