Moore's law: past, present and future

Abstract

A simple observation, made over 30 years ago, on the growth in the number of devices per silicon die has become the central driving force of one of the most dynamic of the world's industries. Because of the accuracy with which Moore's Law has predicted past growth in IC complexity, it is viewed as a reliable method of calculating future trends as well, setting the pace of innovation, and defining the rules and the very nature of competition. And since the semiconductor portion of electronic consumer products keeps growing by leaps and bounds, the Law has aroused in users and consumers an expectation of a continuous stream of faster, better, and cheaper high-technology products. Even the policy implications of Moore's Law are significant: it is used as the baseline assumption in the industry's strategic road map for the next decade and a half.