Problem formulation and hypothesis testing for environmental risk assessments of genetically modified crops
Open Access
- 1 July 2006
- journal article
- research article
- Published by EDP Sciences in Environmental Biosafety Research
- Vol. 5 (3), 119-125
- https://doi.org/10.1051/ebr:2007004
Abstract
Environmental risk assessments can provide high confidence of minimal risk by testing theories, “risk hypotheses”, that predict the likelihood of unacceptable harmful events. The creation of risk hypotheses and a plan to test them is called problem formulation. Effective problem formulation seeks to maximize the possibility of detecting effects that indicate potential risk; if such effects are not detected, minimal risk is indicated with high confidence. Two important implications are that artificial test conditions can increase confidence, whereas prescriptive data requirements can reduce confidence (increase uncertainty) if they constrain problem formulation. Poor problem formulation can increase environmental risk because it leads to the collection of superfluous data that may delay or prevent the introduction of environmentally beneficial products.Keywords
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