Assessing the Potential Extent of Damage to Inland Lakes in Eastern Canada due to Acidic Deposition: II. Application of the Regional Model

Abstract

In this, the second of two papers on the development and application of a regional model of surface water acidification, we present the results of initial applications of the model to sensitive regions of eastern Canada. Data used for regional application of the model were obtained from a variety of sources, including acidic sulphate deposition monitoring data and regional lake water chemistry surveys. While these data do not provide a random sample of eastern Canadian lakes, we argue that there are no a priori reasons for expecting highly misleading biases in the data. Results of model applications are presented for observed 1980 sulphate deposition levels and for three alternative emission scenarios. The emission scenarios were simulated using a transfer matrix derived from the AES-LRTAP model. The results suggest that substantial additional damage (declines in surface water alkalinity and pH) is expected in some regions (e.g. northeastern Ontario), even at current deposition levels. The consequences of simple emission reduction strategies differ significantly among regions, suggesting that more complex strategies may be required to produce equitable benefits. To assist interpretation of a complex array of results, we propose an integrated representation of regional impacts that uses quantile-quantile plots of regional distributions of lake chemistry. Finally, we argue that while the results presented are highly uncertain, there are reasons to believe that, if anything, our damage estimates are conservative.